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Analyzing the Dynamics of USD/TRY Exchange Rate in Quarter 1 2023

The USD/TRY exchange rate 2023 is subject to various economic, political, and social factors that influence the global currency markets. 

usd lira exchange rate graph quarter 1 2023
USD/TRY Exchange Rate Quarter 1

Within Turkey, there are key drivers of exchange rate fluctuations, including inflation, interest rates, and global economic trends.

  • High inflation rates can cause the Turkish lira to lose value against the US dollar, resulting in increased volatility. Changes in interest rates can attract foreign investment and strengthen the local currency, but Turkey’s President Erdogan believes high-interest rates can lead to inflation.
  • The state of the global economy, such as economic growth, trade tensions, and commodity prices, can also impact currency values globally, including the Turkish lira.


As of January 2023, the exchange rate between the Turkish lira (TRY) and the US dollar was approximately 18.702. The inflation rate had climbed to approximately 57.68% as of January 2023. Moreover, interest rates were held at 9% in January.

— Despite the worst exchange rate at 18.7017 TRY and the best at 18.8135 TRY, the average in January stood at 18.7827 TRY. 


The situation changed in February when a massive earthquake hit southern Turkey, affecting 11 provinces which contribute to 9% of the country’s GDP, resulting in a slight drop in the exchange rate to 18.83 TRY and a 1.35% decline in the stock market. 

— The worst and best exchange rates in February were 18.8149 TRY and 18.8881 TRY, respectively, with an average of 18.8488 TRY.


Turkey’s central bank reduced the interest rate from 9% to 8.5% on February 23rd, with the aim of providing relief to the affected regions. However, the exchange rate remained volatile, fluctuating between 18.7017 TRY and 19.0605 TRY throughout the year, with the average exchange rate at 18.858 TRY. On March 23rd, the exchange rate reached its highest point, representing the best rate observed during that month.

As Turkey gears up for a crucial election in two months, it faces several economic challenges. The earthquake caused massive damage and losses worth over $35 billion, leading to a significant drop in the country’s foreign exchange reserves. Despite the central bank’s efforts to stabilize the currency and control inflation, the lira’s value continues to decline, resulting in higher living expenses for Turkish families.


In summary, the average exchange rate for 2023 was 18.858 TRY, with a range of 18.7017 TRY to 19.0605 TRY. Turkey’s recent earthquake has added to the country’s economic woes, which it must address while preparing for the upcoming elections.

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